Betting on Bernanke
08/09/12 08:35
I welcome the month of September with open arms. It brings cool weather; it rids the coast and environs of tourists; and the roads are once again clear to ride our bikes as we like and when we like. We don't have to worry about avoiding the crowds at Jenness and braving the boulevard of dreams while trying to find our stride. Like a pastoral scene off the canvas of a french impressionist, the colors of the landscape change with each passing day here along the coast this time of the year. There is something about the diffusion of salt in the air and gases from the marsh that join to create a resplendent rye colored landscape along the coastline. It only gets better with each passing day. The only downside to the month of September is that the days begin to shorten and I often arrive home after a nice bike ride as it is getting dark. Not so dark that I cannot make my way safely but dark enough to know that pushing a little harder that last mile or so is the right thing to do. And rush I do.
The financial world has been in a whirl this past few months. The world's economies are in the toilet with bond yields at all time highs; interest rates at all time lows; oil trading above $100 a barrel and selling at the pump above $4 a gallon; and many sectors of the U.S. economy are looking for a reason not to throw in the towel. I have never been so attuned to these risks as I have been this year. As of late, I have been primarily focused on the reactions to the risks as a determinant of stock market valuations. Bernanke's decision to put QE3 on tap for the foreseeable future, in conjunction with similar steps taken in Europe, have created a spike in the stock market beyond the expectations of most market analysts. If you were lucky enough to be in at the bottom some months ago, and you stayed the course despite the obvious risks, you were rewarded handsomely. Now the question is, what is the calculus for change going forward? I am firmly in the camp of the "sell high and buy low" contingent but am otherwise constrained by penalties imposed by changes made within a 90-day window so must act accordingly. I will do what I always do. Take my guidance from Brinker on the direction of the Markets, take in the collective wisdom and nonsense of the online analysts, parse it as it needs to be parsed, and pray to the baby Jesus that I've made the right decision. It is true that the markets never go straight up or straight down so there is considerable wisdom during times like this to consolidate gains and await the next opportunity.
Now that our septic is squared away, we have turned our attention to related matters and had Perry Plumbing come to the house to look after a couple of things. The bathroom in the garage has not been used in years and we were wanting to get that up and running. We stopped using it since it didn't seem to be working properly. As a matter of sheer convenience, it is nice to have so we were most pleased to hear that the fix was minor. Perry checked on the water tank in the basement and evaluated our water heater. He also patched up our dryer hose so that was good. I noticed that some creature had chewed a hole in the hose when I was down there the other day and we just added it to the list of things for him to look at. Perry also attended to the water connections to the washer and dryer and now the coast is clear for the fine fellows at BestBuy to come back and hook up our new high efficiency machines. Next stop is the dishwasher. That will complete the cycle for utilities that utilize water in our house and that should be enough for this year. If someone had told me a year ago that we would take care of all these things within a years time I would have shrugged my shoulders and kept on walking. I think it's a good sign.
The financial world has been in a whirl this past few months. The world's economies are in the toilet with bond yields at all time highs; interest rates at all time lows; oil trading above $100 a barrel and selling at the pump above $4 a gallon; and many sectors of the U.S. economy are looking for a reason not to throw in the towel. I have never been so attuned to these risks as I have been this year. As of late, I have been primarily focused on the reactions to the risks as a determinant of stock market valuations. Bernanke's decision to put QE3 on tap for the foreseeable future, in conjunction with similar steps taken in Europe, have created a spike in the stock market beyond the expectations of most market analysts. If you were lucky enough to be in at the bottom some months ago, and you stayed the course despite the obvious risks, you were rewarded handsomely. Now the question is, what is the calculus for change going forward? I am firmly in the camp of the "sell high and buy low" contingent but am otherwise constrained by penalties imposed by changes made within a 90-day window so must act accordingly. I will do what I always do. Take my guidance from Brinker on the direction of the Markets, take in the collective wisdom and nonsense of the online analysts, parse it as it needs to be parsed, and pray to the baby Jesus that I've made the right decision. It is true that the markets never go straight up or straight down so there is considerable wisdom during times like this to consolidate gains and await the next opportunity.
Now that our septic is squared away, we have turned our attention to related matters and had Perry Plumbing come to the house to look after a couple of things. The bathroom in the garage has not been used in years and we were wanting to get that up and running. We stopped using it since it didn't seem to be working properly. As a matter of sheer convenience, it is nice to have so we were most pleased to hear that the fix was minor. Perry checked on the water tank in the basement and evaluated our water heater. He also patched up our dryer hose so that was good. I noticed that some creature had chewed a hole in the hose when I was down there the other day and we just added it to the list of things for him to look at. Perry also attended to the water connections to the washer and dryer and now the coast is clear for the fine fellows at BestBuy to come back and hook up our new high efficiency machines. Next stop is the dishwasher. That will complete the cycle for utilities that utilize water in our house and that should be enough for this year. If someone had told me a year ago that we would take care of all these things within a years time I would have shrugged my shoulders and kept on walking. I think it's a good sign.